Monday, November 17, 2014

Surprise, surprise, Steph Curry is a good defensive player


Steph Curry morphed into a superstar as his Golden State Warriors have ascended the ladder in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. His place among the best NBA players today cemented after his first All-Star appearance this past season and there are very few, if any, more exciting players to watch from an offensive standpoint. This may be common knowledge now, but it is rather remarkable considering his lack of raw athleticism a la LeBron James or Russell Westbrook. Curry does like to elevate with some flashy dunks in practice, but more often than not, his in-game dunks end rather…poorly.


I guess the lesson here is Curry shows us that three points is more than two.

His knock-down shot, flashy passing, scary handles, and energy are special. But the stereotype has been reiterated throughout the league and the internet blogosphere that Curry is anything from a below-average to essentially-absent defender. Mark Jackson and the 2013 Warriors took strides to actively hide Curry’s defense, so not much could be said to combat such criticism.

Whispers of change began to simmer in this past off-season. With the Steve Kerr hire came a new coaching staff, including Brad Stevens’ former assistant coach, Ron Adams. Adams remarked back in July that Curry “has all the prerequisites to be a good defensive player” and that “at times has been brilliant defensively, and I think the trick here is to simply get him brilliant more of the time.”

Even as a team, the Warriors have had an underrated, yet elite, defense. To Mark Jackson's credit, this was a point of emphasis last year that the former coach instilled in his squad. For that very reason, Kerr articulated in the off-season that he did not want to change much on that end of the floor. Thus far, that plan has panned out well. The Warriors are third in defensive efficiency, give up less than 100 points per game, are second in opponents FG%, third in opponents 3P%, and maintain the league’s best point-differential.

Despite the Warriors continued defensive success, Steph Curry’s defense has managed to lurk in the shadows as underrated, but much improved. I realize that the season has just begun, but there’s a trend that’s omnipresent in everything about the former Davidson standout’s defense.

Better rebounding

A quick glance at his basic stats, and you’ll get a bird’s-eye view at his improvement. Thus far in the young NBA season, Curry is sporting a career-high in both rebounds (5.8 per game) and steals (2.4 per game). He has held, and is battling with, Chris Paul for the league-lead in SPG. No small feat in light of Paul’s reputation as a premiere defensive point guard.

But what needs greater attention is the type of rebounds that Curry has been grabbing, which are noticeably different than those in years past.

Here we see him start off by fighting through screens. This has become a popular mechanism taken by opponents to try to wear down the offensive juggernaut. The majority of teams run Curry off many screens—both on-ball and off-ball—in half-court sets. Who was a major trendsetter for this? None other than the defending champs, the San Antonio Spurs, who ran Curry off of no less than 5193 screens in handing Steve Kerr his first blowout loss as a coach on November 11.


In this particular play, though, Curry exhibits both the knowledge and the mental fortitude that he must go toward the basket for the rebound. Seems simple enough, but Curry often correctly leaks out for an outlet pass to run the fastbreak, Curry did not do that in this case—an intentional, and brilliant decision. He recognized their defensive do-it-all man, Andrew Bogut, is contesting a 20-footer from Cody Zeller, which means Bogut won’t be able to get to the glass in time. On top of that, Bismack Biyombo might have a grand total of zero offensive game, but Biyombo is averaging 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes over the past two seasons. Draymond Green is playing the 4 here and David Lee is out (injured), so Curry heads toward the defensive, not offensive, basket.

If Curry had not snuck in to grab this rebound, chances are the Warriors have to come back and play defense against a fresh shot-clock for the Hornets. Learning and improvement on the defensive end is something Curry is concentrating on. A few games earlier, in that bad loss to the Spurs, the Warriors were out-rebounded on the offensive glass, 8-to-1…despite the Spurs being a notoriously poor offensive rebounding team.

Here is a second example, where Curry gets to the ball with the much taller Tarik Black in the vicinity. This occurred after an awful defensive sequence that involved three offensive rebounds by the Houston Rockets. Again, this a situation where Curry could have left his big man, in this case Bogut, on a rebounding island. Instead, Steph gets the rebound and then throws a beautiful full-court pass to Draymond Green for the easy lay-in.

Advanced metric analysis

As any stat guru would tell you though, basic stats, like the rebounds Curry earned against Biyombo or Black, can only tell so much. The eyeball test may give anyone who has watched Warriors games consistently enough proof. He’s guarding opposing point guards, not shying away from defensive challenges, and getting in the fray from a rebounding perspective. But advanced metrics can give even those who do not watch the Warriors another avenue into understanding how Curry is on-par defensively with some names you otherwise be shocked to hear.

Rebounds from guards can often be garbage or look-what-I-found rebounds. It’s the responsibility of big men to do the dirty work on the glass but sometimes errant shots ricochet out to the perimeter. (I highly suggest looking over Kirk Goldsberry's great piece on How Rebounds Work.) Naturally, this work does correlate to higher rebounding numbers for power forwards and what’s left of the center position, but there are also the multiple times a game where the ball clangs off iron to a guard who just happens to be in the right spot. (Example.)

Two advanced stats that filter this out are: 1) uncontested REB% and 2) rebounding distance. Uncontested REB% is an intuitive stat that measures the percentage of a player’s rebounds that are uncontested—akin to the example above. Rebounding distance is a complementary metric because the rebounds that are closer to the basket often involve more “work” by the rebounder (boxing out, correct positioning, motivation to actually get the rebound, etc.). Thus, indicators of a better rebounder are 1) lower uncontested REB% and 2) a higher percentage of one’s overall rebounds occurring within six feet.

Curry’s uncontested REB% is 71.4, meaning that almost three-quarters of his rebounds are not contested by an opponent. That looks rather mediocre until you compare it to some big-time defensive guards. The Warriors point guard has a better uncontested REB% than Rajon Rondo (77.2%), Mike Conley (77.8%), and Chris Paul (85.7%). (For perspective, Andrew Bogut’s uncontested REB% is 57.9 and Anthony Davis’ is 47.9.)


When David Lee eventually returns, Curry’s rebounding numbers will decline. But this is not a bad thing. Look at Rondo and Conley, for example. Rajon Rondo’s 8.1 rebounds per game are artificially boosted by his team’s mediocre rebounding, and Mike Conley, the perfect contrast, has only 1.8 rebounds per game. Conley is on the Grizzlies, not the lowly Celtics, and with Z-Bo and Marc Gasol inhaling every rebound, there isn’t much left to go around for the guards. So a drop in Curry's rebounding numbers will not indicate he has become a worse rebounder, just that he's simply needed less in that facet. It does, however, show that when he is called upon to shoulder a greater rebounding load, that he can do it.

Individual defensive numbers are another comparison that can mitigate teammates’ influence on one’s box score numbers. An advanced metric that seeks to incorporate a player’s entire value defensively is defensive box plus/minus (DBPM). Curry’s is 2.5 right now. This number alone likely means nothing to you, as it does to me, unless you are regularly walled up in a cave crunching formulas and statistics. What is readily accessible, however, is Curry’s improvement in this metric. It is the first time in his career that Curry has a positive DBPM, which indicates that he is a better than league-average defender.

Opponent shooting numbers provide perhaps a more digestible way to look at Curry's defense. This, too, is a method that indicates players like Paul, Conley, and Rondo are excellent defenders. And while I wanted to shy away from tables as much as possible, I’m going to burden you with just this one. It’s very much worth highlighting, so bear with me:



Steph Curry
Mike Conley
Chris Paul
Rajon Rondo
Overall OPP FG%
36.5%
42.6%
44.9%
49.0%
OPP 3PA/game
3.9
3.3
4.1
3.3
OPP 2PA/game
7.9
6.7
6.0
5.2
OPP 3P%
22.2%
40.0%
34.5%
40.0%
OPP 2P%
43.6%
43.3%
50.0%
54.8%


The players that Curry is defending are taking and missing at the same rates —and, in some instances, worse rates—than three of the league’s best defensive point guards while he’s matched up with opposing stars like Chris Paul and Damian Lillard. Kerr, unlike Jackson, is not hiding Curry, and it is paying off.

Succeeding within the Warriors' team defense

These are very encouraging numbers, but defense is not just an individual concept. This can be monitored on a macroscopic level (the Warriors defense as a team is one of the best in the league) but also on a microscopic, play-by-play, level. It’s clear that Curry has bought into the system and his role while also knowing how to play opponents.

Here is one of those microscopic examples where he is matched up against Deron Williams (both Curry and Williams were Players of the Week for the week prior to this game). D-Will runs a pick-and-roll with Mason Plumlee, except this time counters by not taking the screen and getting a step ahead of Curry going to the basket. (Side-note: it's worth noting that Curry intended on, as he usually does, to go over the screen. As you may already know, poor defenders tend to go underneath screens which allows more open jump shots.) Curry catches up to his man but also knows Mo Speights is there to help. Curry jumps to contest the shot and this ends with a Speights block. This play won’t appear in the box score affirming Curry’s part in the defensive stop, but he was clearly valuable in walling off the middle of the paint and allowing Speights to get the block.

The leading Splash Bro has given us a sample of it all: defensive rebounding, steals, holding opponent’s shooting numbers down, and (most importantly) playing within the team’s defensive gameplan. This might be the first time you have heard it, but the 185-pound, baby-faced assassin will challenge opposing teams defensively, and do it well. Curry is knocking on the door of not being just an average defender, but a good one. He may have lost the November 11 battle to Tony Parker (giving up 28), but has handled Kemba Walker, kept Chris Paul in check, and completely creamed Jeremy Lin.

The Warriors leader—and NBA MVP-hopeful—is more than just Chef Curry with the shot.


(All statistics accurate as of November 16.)

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Top 10 Players in the NBA, 2015 edition


A week into the 2014-15 NBA season we've had a solid sample size to judge which players have earned top-10 spots. The very top of this list has no surprises but you might be surprised at who landed the spots behind the two usual suspects. This concludes the three-part series of top-30 players and this one will probably stir up the most debate...

10. John Wall

Russell Westbrook takes the home the award as most electrifying point guard from an athletic standpoint but John Wall is no. 2. As of November 9, he’s averaging 19-9-4…an improvement from 2013 and a continuation of his general upward trend. Wall will benefit tremendously from the veteran leadership of Paul Pierce. He’s not yet in the Westbrook-Paul-Curry tier of point guards but he’s knocking on the door.
9. Kevin Love

The Cavaliers have been significantly underwhelming thus far into the 2014-15 NBA season and Love’s start has been humbling as well. As LeBron said…
Cleveland has three stars, so there’s no reason to worry. They’re in the East, so there’s definitely no reason to worry. And Kevin Love has shown one of the most unique combinations of rebounding, outside shooting, passing, and inside scoring in the league.

8. Russell Westbrook

I realize that in years past I’ve eliminated injured players from discussion in my top-X players columns. However, Westbrook will be back sooner rather than later and his overall value to the 2014-15 NBA season is in the eight-spot (with or without injury). Westbrook rounds out the eight players in the NBA that I would want to start a franchise with…that is, if I expected to be in title contention. Love, Wall, Harden, and those All Stars aren’t no. 1 players on a championship-caliber team. His athleticism and tenacity are unparalleled and as much as I’ve bashed his style of play, there’s no doubt he’s one of the league’s most talented and entertaining players.

7. Carmelo Anthony

The hate that Melo gets is often unreasonable. As Bill Simmons wrote in a July 2014 column, the supporting casts for the majority of his career have been abysmal. He’s had nobody to support him. It’s kind of like 2014 Kobe Bryant jacking up 35 shots a game…except Anthony is actually putting up MVP-worthy scoring numbers instead of barely 40% from the field. He’s the opposite of a mamba. You know he’s coming in for the kill long before you see him and he still gets you. His defense was never anemic, he just has Amare Stoudemire behind him. With the Knicks expirings after this season, the Knicks could easily land a nice haul, especially if Rajon Rondo elects to don the blue and orange. The team aspect of basketball is criminally underrated and ironically that favors a guy like Anthony who has nobody to rely on. Pair him with another (super)star and you have a title contender. The seven-time All-Star is the sixth-youngest to reach 20,000 points in his career and arguably the league’s best pure scorer.
6. Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin made huge strides last season, adding a jumpshot and refined post-game to what was previously strictly #LobCity. The former no. 1 overall pick is putting up a career-high 24.5 points per game and was a pre-season favorite to be in the MVP conversation for the 2015 campaign. The Clippers will be in a dogfight not just in the West…but in their own division. Blake will be expected to lead the Clips past the Warriors and the surprising Sacramento Kings. His free throws shooting, previously a liability, has improved significantly from 52 percent in 2012 to 77 percent thus far this year. Many people give the Clippers a shot at the 2015 NBA title and Blake Griffin is a primary reason for those inclinations.

5. Chris Paul

The other half of #LobCity, Chris Paul is often regarded as the league’s best point guard. While I disagree with that (in 2014-15), there’s no doubt that he is a do-it-all player who can score, facilitate, play shut-down perimeter defense, and lead his team. His playoff success thus far is limited, but with the Donald Sterling saga behind CP3 and Blake, there are no excuses for this team not to make a championship run with two top-six NBA players.

4. Steph Curry


It has taken me a bit longer than I had hoped to put this column together, but I had Steph as the no. 1 point guard in the league before the season began. He doesn’t have the athleticism that Westbrook. He doesn’t have the defense that Chris Paul has (although the Warriors do have the league’s best defense so far, and third-best in the league last year…so he’s not as bad as pundits would have you believe). But his scoring and shooting ability are unparalleled. He can weave through a defense like Steve Nash, shoot over a defense like Kevin Durant (despite his small frame), and has taken the Warriors beyond expectations as the clear best player on the team. There are only three players in the 2015 NBA season that I’d rather build a franchise around.
3. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis can check game-winning basket off his checklist, as he finished off the Spurs in a shocker on Saturday. His talent and athletic ability are on-par with LeBron James, but Davis also has height and length that even LeBron doesn’t have. AD made his presence known on opening night, submitting a 26-17 performance…with nine blocks. Mike Conley said “he’s tall enough, long enough, athletic enough, skilled enough to do pretty much anything.” The no. 1 pick in the 2012 draft is atop the early season NBA.com MVP ladder and won’t be slowing down anytime soon.

2. Kevin Durant

KD is sidelined until December with a right foot fracture but I’m still giving him the respect he has earned as the undisputed second-best player in the NBA. The reigning MVP certainly won’t be able to repeat in 2015 (as I had predicted he would in the pre-season), but his value from December on is second-to-only-one LeBron James. Scoring machine personified, Durant’s seal on the game has already been made at age 26.

1. LeBron James

The real question: when will we not see LeBron James atop the ranking for best NBA player? Durant or Anthony Davis are likely heir to the crown of best player in the world, but for now the title still belongs to King James. His Cleveland Cavaliers have some work to do, but his singular worth would be astronomical in an NBA sans salary cap. Part of me wonders if slimming down was the right decision for a player who’s skillset is predicated on the ability to be a force of nature, but the two-time champion and former no. 1 pick is at the top (again).

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Top 30 players in the NBA, 2015 edition, Part II


Heavy in point guards and centers…part II of the three part series for best players in the NBA is here! (You can view Part I here.) Players 11-20:

20. Tony Parker

If it weren’t for Big Al, Tony Parker would be the most underrated players in the league. A 12-year NBA veteran and four-time NBA champion, Parker rarely gets the respect he deserves prior to being crowned a champion. The other aspect is that with Gregg Popovich as coach, it’s difficult to truly judge an individual player’s value within a team system that runs so smoothly. Duncan didn’t make my top-30 simply because his minutes will continue to drop, but that’s no knock against the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer.

19. Damian Lillard

Not-so-quietly becoming one of the league’s most dependable clutch scorers, the Oakland native burst onto the NBA scene in 2012. With a Rookie of the Year award, NBA All-Star vote, and playoff appearance already under his belt, Lillard still has untapped potential. His incredible Game 1 in the first round of the 2014 playoffs against Houston was the first time a player went for 30+ points and only one turnover in their playoff debut. He finished that series with a game-winning buzzer beater. Lillard’s only problem is that the point guard position is stacked with more All-NBA talent.

18. Joakim Noah

The face of the Chicago Bulls in Derrick Rose’s time on the sideline over the past few years, Noah’s fiery personality has instilled a ferocity within the Bulls’ defense. Jonathan Abrams wrote a feature on this heart of Chicago a couple weeks ago that illuminated the started-from-the-bottom-now-we-here story behind Noah. The 2014 Defensive Player of the Year is quietly one of the best passing bigs in the game. His assist numbers have increased every single year he’s been in the league (starting in 2007-08): 1.1, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 4.0, 5.4.

17. Dirk Nowitzki


Dirk’s Mavs competed with the eventual 2014 champion San Antonio Spurs better than LeBron James’ Miami Heat did. That says a lot about the leadership and one-legged fade-aways from the 36-year-old German. While his defense has always been rather comical (a recent example), every shot chart of Dirk is video-game like. That shot won’t go away this year, and with Tyson Chandler on board, some people see the Mavs entering the fray with the likes of the Warriors and Rockets in the teams knocking on the door of the West’s elite.

16. Rajon Rondo

This was probably the toughest decision in terms of ranking because like Derrick Rose, Rondo’s injury history leaves something of a question mark in his 2014-15 capabilities. However, if opening night for the Celtics and a rout of the Nets was any indication—with the usual near-triple-double numbers from Rondo—there’s no reason he has left the discussion for top NBA point guards. Now, whether or not he stays with the C’s remains to be seen…

15. DeMarcus Cousins

23-12-3 in 2013-14 and you probably didn’t even know it. Cousins may be in the running with Lance Stephenson for the Ron Pandaworld Peace Crazy Man award, but he boogies down low. One of the best offensive centers in the NBA, Boogie Cousins will make a very strong case to earn his first All-Star appearance. If the Sacramento Kings can make a push for Rajon Rondo, you might be looking at a second playoff threat in Northern California.

14. Marc Gasol


Marc and his brother, Pau, were heavily hyped prior to the 2014 FIBA World Cup as a legitimate threat to dethrone the United States. They didn’t even make the Final. Despite an impressive start, Marc did not impress in Spain’s matchup with France, going 1-of-7 from the field and grabbing four rebounds and no assists. Memphis can never seem to make that jump come playoffs, but Gasol’s value as an all-around big (offense, defense, leadership) puts him firmly in the top-15 NBA players of 2015.

13. Dwight Howard

Howard’s numbers have definitely cooled off since his 21-13-2 and two blocks days as a member of the Orlando Magic. The whole Los Angeles fiasco made one of the most likable players in the NBA suddenly become hated by the league’s largest fanbase. His free-throw shooting hovers around 50 percent, so D12 leaves much to be desired in terms of a polished offense. But defensively, he is still as good as it gets. Paired with the player one spot ahead of him, Howard is a post-game away from being a true franchise player…and still only 28 years old.

12. James Harden

He told us this off-season that he’s going to spend more time focusing on his defense. Those YouTube montages with him almost literally falling asleep on defense were awful. He can’t be considered a top-10 player with such an anemic defensive ability. Maybe he shows us something different this year but I need to see it to believe it. His offensive skill-set, however, is top-notch. Harden's shooting range and playmaking combine with a knack for getting to the free-throw line at will. (Harden was second only to Kevin Durant in free throw attempts per game in 2014, with 9.1 FTA per game.)

11. LaMarcus Aldridge

LaMarcus Aldridge led the Portland Trailblazers to a scorching hot start in 2014. Yes, they did cool off as the season wore on, but LMA came back in the post-season with a vengeance. He destroyed Dwight Howard and James Harden’s Houston Rockets in the first round as nothing short of an offensive juggernaut. His final numbers for that series: 30 PPG, 11 RPG, 2 APG, 3 BPG, and 82 percent from the line. Sure, he cooled off against the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs in the Conference semis, but he proved his singular value last season in both the regular and the post-season. I know I won’t be overlooking Portland’s foundation in 2014-15.