Beating out defending MVP and Finals MVP LeBron James isn’t
going to be easy. But Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant can do it.
Two years removed from a Western Conference semifinals loss
to the Dallas Mavericks (who would go on to become NBA champions) and this past
seasons’ loss in the NBA Finals to the Miami Heat will fuel the fire in Durant.
If these five keys fall into place for Kevin Durant he will
hoist the Maurice Podoloff trophy at the conclusion of the 2012-13 NBA season.
1. Lead the league in scoring
Scoring is the strength that
defines Kevin Durant. He has been the league’s premier scorer for the past three
years running, beating out stars like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
If Durant wins a fourth consecutive title he will be in the
company of only two other players in NBA history: Wilt Chamberlain and Michael
Jordan. Those two Hall of Famers have combined to take home nine MVP awards.
Voters would be hard-pressed to short-change Durant if he joined such company.
Kevin Durant isn’t well-rounded enough to not be in the NBA
at his strength and still have a realistic shot at MVP. Winning the scoring
title does not guarantee an MVP for Durant but not winning it guarantees that he won’t.
2. Rebound like he’s 6’9” and be a more effective
facilitator
Although his rebounding is heavily criticized, there has
been a marked improvement since his rookie year in the NBA.
His eight rebounds per game in 2011-12 nearly doubled his
total in his rookie year (4.4 RPG), an excellent sign of things to come. He is
simply too tall not to be a good rebounder even if his wiry 215-pound frame
makes it more difficult to battle the 230+ pound big men.
In terms of being a facilitator, Durant has a lot of room to
improve. Over his career his regular season assist totals have never surpassed
3.3 per game. He cannot win the MVP award if he puts up these meager numbers.
He needs at least eight rebounds and five assists per game
to be a serious threat for the MVP.
3. Russell Westbrook creates more open shots for him
Although I have questioned Russell Westbrook’s place on the
Oklahoma City Thunder—and once argued that the Thunder
would be better off if he was traded—there is no doubting Westbrook’s elite
talent. If Westbrook can figure it out and take on more of a facilitator role
than a scoring role from the point guard position, then the Thunder will have a
legitimate shot to win a title.
And Kevin Durant may win the MVP award.
Although he averages a respectable 6.8 assists per game over
the course of his four-year career (in which he has played every single regular season game), Westbrook only managed to haul
in 5.5 assists per game in the shortened 2012-13 regular season.
With Durant’s ability to knock down shots from anywhere on
the floor, Westbrook could easily average nine assists per game.
4. Be a versatile defender
Durant managed to pull down 7.4 defensive rebounds, 1.3
steals and 1.2 blocks per game which isn’t all that bad. As a comparison, NBA
MVP LeBron James had 6.4 defensive rebounds, 1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks per
game.
Surprisingly comparable, right?
The only thing players’ defensive ability cannot be judged
strictly on statistics—whereas offense can often be. For instance, LeBron James
has guarded all five positions on the floor at some point and Durant isn’t at
that point yet. You cannot quantify the value of that to a basketball team.
Durant, however, has the ability to do so because his long
arms enable him to compete with the league’s taller players as well as the shorter
ones who may have a step advantage over him.
The key is consistency and versatility. If he can shut down
opposing forwards for long stretches during games and possibly defend guards
and centers when asked to, Durant will shed the reputation of a weaker
defender. He already showed glimpses of his true defensive potential when he
shut down Kobe Bryant during the playoffs in the fourth quarter.
5. Voters prevent LeBron James from winning his fourth MVP
LeBron James will
be better next season than he was this season.
That is a scary proposition for the rest of the league and
its potential MVP candidates.
The hard reality is that he is the favorite to repeat—as he
should be. You can debate his overall greatness, but LeBron is arguably the
most athletically gifted player ever to hit the NBA court. His size and
strength are simply unparalleled and while Durant has the size to create
significant mismatches so does LeBron.
But James also has the strength of a power forward or center
at 6’8” and 250 pounds.
The two things that would stop LeBron from repeating as MVP
for the second time in his career are injuries and voters.
NBA sportswriters have an odd inclination to spread around
the wealth of MVP honors.
If they feel that way at the conclusion of the 2012-13 NBA
season and Durant reaches each of these keys, the MVP trophy will be his for
the taking.
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