2012 MLB Playoffs: Analyzing the Giants pitching rotation options

Now that the San Francisco Giants have booked their ticket to October baseball, the inevitable topic of debate for the next couple weeks will be the pitching rotation. The Giants are in a tough position—but in a good way because they have excellent options to choose from. Typically a playoff rotation is only a four-man rotation so that the number one starter can throw two times in a five-game series or even three times in a seven-game set. This leaves one regular season starter riding the bench.

The Giants do not currently have any true back-of-the-rotation starter (save Tim Lincecum’s struggles that Bruce Bochy continually neglected). Instead, they seem to have a pair of aces as well as five arms who can all give San Francisco an excellent shot at winning a ballgame.

	Matt Cain	Madison Bumgarner	Barry Zito	Tim Lincecum	Ryan Vogelsong
W-L	5-2	5-4	5-1	5-3	5-4
IP	65.1	61.2	53.2	52.2	49
ERA	3.04	3.68	4.91	3.28	7.16
K	55	57	35	47	52
Team win percentage	.700	.600	.900	.667	.500

 Note: Statistics from 8/1 – 9/23; team win percentage represents all games where named pitcher started

Even though his ERA is on the high side, Barry Zito should be a no-brainer to land a spot in the rotation. His recent performance has been outstanding in that the Giants have won nine of his past ten starts. Even though he was a disaster in the previous years that he donned the orange and black, Zito has been a quintessential member of the Giants pitching staff and has earned a spot in the rotation.

Matt Cain and his perfect game have undoubtedly been a crux of the staff, as well. He and Madison Bumgarner have been relatively consistent throughout the season and were instrumental in the Giants’ 2010 World Series championship. Cain did not give up a single earned run in 21 1/3 innings of postseason work.

Although Tim Lincecum was the face of the 2010 World Series championship, his shockingly terrible season this year has landed him in the discussion for the back-end of the rotation—if not out of the rotation altogether. Lincecum’s season as a whole has been well less expected from a two-time Cy Young Award winner, but his pitching has improved over the course of the past two months and in that time period he is right in the middle of the rotation, statistically.

This leaves out Ryan Vogelsong. While that would be a difficult decision to make considering he had such an incredible comeback season last year, Vogelsong just has not been playing as well of late and has been the worst Giants starter of late (see chart above). By no means does that mean that he is bad—the Giants have some of the best pitching in baseball—it just means that he is the odd man out this time.

As for the order of the rotation, that is a more complicated question based on matchups—something that Bochy has been a wizard with over the years. Take this season for example: Bochy has made a closer-by-committee bullpen work masterfully.

Based on the combination of factors such as recent performance and previous experience, the Giants rotation should look something like this:

1) Matt Cain

2) Madison Bumgarner

3) Tim Lincecum

4) Barry Zito

Truthfully, the last two are interchangeable. Moreover, if the Giants are able to get through everybody in the first round and somebody does particularly well (or particularly poorly), Bochy can fiddle with the rotation and add Ryan Vogelsong, if necessary. Additionally, having Vogelsong come out of the bullpen as a middle reliever could be very effective for the Giants—and that’s something Vogelsong could likely do better than any other starter.

Going into the playoffs, the Giants should be very happy with what they have. This rotation may not be as concrete as the 2010 team, but nothing about 2012 has been very concrete. Nonetheless, they pulled out the National League West title. It will be exciting to see who will step up in October and how Bochy manages the pieces that he has to work with.

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