Now that the San Francisco Giants have booked their ticket
to October baseball, the inevitable topic of debate for the next couple weeks
will be the pitching rotation. The Giants are in a tough position—but in a good
way because they have excellent options to choose from. Typically a playoff
rotation is only a four-man rotation so that the number one starter can throw
two times in a five-game series or even three times in a seven-game set. This
leaves one regular season starter riding the bench.
The Giants do not currently have any true back-of-the-rotation
starter (save Tim Lincecum’s struggles that Bruce Bochy continually neglected).
Instead, they seem to have a pair of aces as well as five arms who can all give
San Francisco an excellent shot at winning a ballgame.
|
Matt Cain
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
Barry Zito
|
Tim Lincecum
|
Ryan Vogelsong
|
W-L
|
5-2
|
5-4
|
5-1
|
5-3
|
5-4
|
IP
|
65.1
|
61.2
|
53.2
|
52.2
|
49
|
ERA
|
3.04
|
3.68
|
4.91
|
3.28
|
7.16
|
K
|
55
|
57
|
35
|
47
|
52
|
Team win percentage
|
.700
|
.600
|
.900
|
.667
|
.500
|
Note:
Statistics from 8/1 – 9/23; team win percentage represents all games where
named pitcher started
Even though his ERA
is on the high side, Barry Zito should be a no-brainer to land a spot in the rotation. His recent performance
has been outstanding in that the Giants have won nine of his past ten starts.
Even though he was a disaster in the previous years that he donned the orange
and black, Zito has been a quintessential member of the Giants pitching staff
and has earned a spot in the rotation.
Matt Cain and his
perfect game have undoubtedly been a crux of the staff, as well. He and Madison
Bumgarner have been relatively consistent throughout the season and were
instrumental in the Giants’ 2010 World Series championship. Cain did not give
up a single earned run in 21 1/3 innings of postseason work.
Although Tim
Lincecum was the face of the 2010 World Series championship, his shockingly
terrible season this year has landed him in the discussion for the back-end of
the rotation—if not out of the rotation altogether. Lincecum’s season as a
whole has been well less expected from a two-time Cy Young Award winner, but his
pitching has improved over the course of the past two months and in that time
period he is right in the middle of the rotation, statistically.
This leaves out Ryan
Vogelsong. While that would be a difficult decision to make considering he had
such an incredible comeback season last year, Vogelsong just has not been
playing as well of late and has been the worst Giants starter of late (see
chart above). By no means does that mean that he is bad—the Giants have some of
the best pitching in baseball—it just means that he is the odd man out this
time.
As for the order of
the rotation, that is a more complicated question based on matchups—something
that Bochy has been a wizard with over the years. Take this season for example:
Bochy has made a closer-by-committee bullpen work masterfully.
Based on the
combination of factors such as recent performance and previous experience, the
Giants rotation should look something like this:
1) Matt Cain
2) Madison Bumgarner
3) Tim Lincecum
4) Barry Zito
Truthfully, the last
two are interchangeable. Moreover, if the Giants are able to get through
everybody in the first round and somebody does particularly well (or
particularly poorly), Bochy can fiddle with the rotation and add Ryan
Vogelsong, if necessary. Additionally, having Vogelsong come out of the bullpen
as a middle reliever could be very effective for the Giants—and that’s
something Vogelsong could likely do better than any other starter.
Going into the
playoffs, the Giants should be very happy with what they have. This rotation
may not be as concrete as the 2010 team, but nothing about 2012 has been very concrete.
Nonetheless, they pulled out the National League West title. It will be
exciting to see who will step up in October and how Bochy manages the pieces
that he has to work with.
How about Lincecum?
ReplyDeleteLincecum is definitely in the discussion. Bochy did say that he plans on taking all of the starters to the postseason but the reason I would give Lincecum the nod over Vogelsong is because of the playoff experience. The Freak has been there and Vogelsong hasn't. Like I mentioned in the article, Vogelsong is probably the most versatile starter of the Giants, as well, in that he could probably be a reasonably effective long reliever.
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