Two
disheartening losses at home in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS were not a good sign of things to
come—and history said a comeback was impossible. So what did the Giants do? Come back from a 2-0 deficit to win three games on the road. It was historic. It was a magical performance that reinvigorated the Giants organization as well as their fan base.
The NLDS was eerily reminiscent of the 2004 ALCS when the Boston Red Sox came roaring back from a 3-0 deficit of their own in what
was the greatest
comeback in sports history. (Okay maybe the Giants comeback was not quite
of that magnitude, but you get the
idea.)
While it should be clear that manager Bruce Bochy will choose
what is best for the Giants, as he has always done, here are my thoughts of
what the NLCS starting rotation should look like (something quite different
from my original
thoughts of their playoff pitching). This is a question that largely comes
down to the use of five starters that have been inconsistent and, for 80
percent of them, under-performing. Yet that only matters so much because the
potential for greatness has already been seen on the mound from each starter.
First, and most importantly should be a consideration of
when each pitcher threw in the NLDS and this chart gives you a succinct look at
that:
|
Pitcher
|
Innings pitched
|
Earned runs
|
Game 1
|
Matt Cain
|
5
|
3
|
Game 2
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
4.1
|
4
|
Game 2
|
Tim Lincecum
|
2
|
0
|
Game 3
|
Ryan Vogelsong
|
5
|
1
|
Game 4
|
Barry Zito
|
2.2
|
2
|
Game 4
|
Tim Lincecum
|
4.1
|
1
|
Game 5
|
Matt Cain
|
5.2
|
3
|
Of course, Matt Cain cannot pitch on Sunday’s opener. But is that really a bad thing? Definitely not. If Cain pitches in Game 3, then he would be pitching on full rest in a Game 7 situation, which would be ideal. Regardless of the fact that he struggled mightily in his two games in the NLDS, Cain is a workhorse and has earned the right to be the primary focal point of the pitching staff in the decline of Tim Lincecum.
You might say what decline of Tim Lincecum? Certainly his two
performances in the NLDS earned him the right to return to the starting
rotation! While that may be true, the reality is that he may be more valuable to the Giants as a long reliever and a Zito-buffer. If Lincecum comes out of
the bullpen, the Giants have flexibility on which games to use him. Compare
that to Bochy giving the ball to Lincecum as a starter—a situation where all flexibility
is lost. Presumably the games in which Cain pitches the Giants would go to
their traditional bullpen pitchers where Bochy
is a master at mixing and matching based on matchups and who is pitching
well. Also, a Zito-Lincecum game gives Posey the game off at catcher.
The other starters have been a toss-up. Since it comes down
to it, Vogelsong was the only pitcher other than Cain to make it to 5 IP so the
Giants should have no problem moving him up to a Game 1 or Game 2 start.
However, they should be hesitant to give Vogelsong the Game 1 start because he or
Lincecum could be used out of the bullpen if necessary—possibly paving a way
for Lincecum into the starting rotation.
Also, Bumgarner has more experience—namely the 2010 World
Series championship run. So I would give the Game 1 start to Bumgarner; he
gives the Giants the best chance to win after eliminating Lincecum and Cain
from consideration (based on what was mentioned in previous paragraphs). If you
disagree with the previous paragraph, perhaps giving Lincecum a Game 1 start is
feasible and reasonable.
Putting my thoughts into action means the first three games
will look like this:
Game 1: Madison
Bumgarner
Game 2: Ryan
Vogelsong
Game 3: Matt Cain
…Now the tough question: who starts Game 4? You can say Tim
Lincecum but the reality is that Barry Zito works. Why? First, the Giants have
won all of his past 12 starts. Regardless
of how utterly ugly they have been, the end result has been, dare I say…perfect. Second, Lincecum coming out of
the ‘pen is a great option if things go south quickly. Lincecum is so different
from Zito that he will surely disorient the Nationals/Cardinals hitters. Finally,
this is the ideal situation for Timmy because he can replicate precisely
what worked in the NLDS. Lincecum could relieve in Games 2 and 4…and possibly in Game 7. That is another
consideration when trying to maximize the benefits of "The Freak."
Lincecum clearly proved me wrong when I said that Vogelsong
would be the best “starter-reliever”, and he showed that he may be more
valuable in that relief role during these playoffs. So give Game 4 to Barry Zito.
If neither NLCS team sweeps the series, games 5 through 7
are all fairly straightforward. A re-hashing of the game 1-3 starters leaves
the final three games looking like this:
Game 5: Madison Bumgarner
Game 6: Ryan Vogelsong
Game 7: Matt Cain
Again, there are so many variables to take into account.
Which Bumgarner is going to show up? Is 2010 playoff Cain going to be in the
NLCS or will it be the one who pitched in the 2012 NLDS? Can Barry Zito pitch
more than a couple innings? The list goes on because each of the five regular
season starters has questions surrounding him.
The one thing that we have learned from the NLDS is that
Lincecum is back in the discussion. Should he start? I say not in the NLCS, but
if the Giants make it to the World Series, that argument should (and would) be
re-evaluated.
Bochy’s decision will probably become apparent shortly. His protection
of his pitchers in the NLDS and appropriate use of them all shows that he not
only knows what is best for his team but that he also has the trust of his
players.
One thing is certain: Bochy’s management of the rotation and
closer
role have been nothing short of spectacular, so whomever he puts on the
field is for a reason.
…Well probably more than just one reason.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Add your thoughts or opinion.