With
all of the ups and downs of the Western conference during this 2012-13 NBA
season, the regular season is down to crunch time with less than 15 games to
go. Just a short while ago, it appeared that the Golden State Warriors would be
fighting for a four or five seed but the Denver Nuggets went on a cool 15-game
winning streak and the first five seeds are all but locked in the West (with
some chance for interchangeability among those five).
However,
the back end of the conference has three teams within a game and a half of the
eight seed. The Lakers are hanging on by the slimmest of margins and seem to be
riding whatever direction that the wind is taking them. Utah has battled
injuries to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap of late and Dallas is managing to
hold on despite Dirk Nowitzki averaging a mediocre 16.5 points per game (lowest
since his rookie year).
In
the end, one game will decide which out of three teams (Dallas, Los Angeles,
and Utah) makes the playoffs. How the West ends up is undoubtedly
multi-factorial, and injuries will certainly play a part—as the Lakers can well
attest to—and here’s where we are at so far:
Current
seed
|
Team
|
Record
|
GB
of six seed
|
GB
of eight seed
|
(6)
|
Golden
State Warriors
|
41-31
|
--
|
--
|
(7)
|
Houston
Rockets
|
39-31
|
1
|
--
|
(8)
|
Los
Angeles Lakers
|
36-35
|
4.5
|
--
|
(--)
|
Utah
Jazz
|
35-36
|
5.5
|
1
|
(--)
|
Dallas
Mavericks
|
34-36
|
6
|
1.5
|
(--)
|
Portland
Trailblazers
|
33-37
|
7
|
2.5
|
Dallas Mavericks
The
Lakers own the tiebreaker with Dallas, but there is no doubt that the Mavericks
are clicking right now. A record of 7-3 in their last ten games has moved them
back into relevancy.
Something that gives the Mavericks an edge—aside from
playoff experience—is the fact that they have can
expect double-digit scoring
from seven or eight players a night. So even though Dirk Nowitzki has not had a
superstar-type year with the likes of O.J. Mayo, Vince Carter, and Darren
Collison, a 25-point nightly performance has not been necessary.
With
seven of their final 12 games at home and the luxury of playing the Hornets
twice and the Kings (once), the Mavericks may be the team of these five with
the best record down the stretch.
Prediction: 7-5 in their final 12 games,
final record of 41-41
Golden State Warriors
As
the Warriors know, the six-seed is extremely valuable. It’s a ticket not to
play San Antonio or Oklahoma City in the first round. Steph Curry proved on
Monday against the Lakers that his ankle roll against the Wizards should not be
much of a factor. Mark Jackson will undoubtedly keep an eye on his franchise
player, but the six seed is the Warriors to lose.
Four
of the Warriors final games are against the Kings, Hornets, Suns, and
Timberwolves—literally the worst teams in the Western conference. While Oracle
has provided a tremendous boost, the Warriors do have a habit of playing up or
down to the competition. The Bay Area has seen some thrilling wins against San
Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Miami but has also watched in horror at repeated
losses at the hands of the Orlando Magic and the struggling Lakers. But with seven
out of 10 games left are at home, the Warriors are lined up for their third
playoff appearance in two decades.
Prediction: 6-4 in their last 10 games,
final record of 47-35
Houston Rockets
It
has been a couple years since the Rockets have been in the playoffs but there
performance this year has not been a surprise. Houston brought in two new centerpieces
to run the show and while Jeremy Lin has not lived quite up to (the
now-trademarked) Linsanity, James Harden has developed into a legitimate
superstar. Six of the Rockets final 12
games are at home and they play the Magic, Suns, and the Kings (twice). With
the support of Chandler Parson and Omer Asik, the Rockets won’t be giving up a
spot in the playoffs anytime soon.
A match-up against Oklahoma City in the first round could get very interesting.
Prediction: 7-5 in their last 12 games,
final record of 45-36
Los Angeles Lakers
The
tumultuous season that the Lakers have endured forced their star guard to
declare a guaranteed playoff
appearance. It appeared to work for a couple weeks, because Los Angeles won 10
of their subsequent 13 games. Then they hit a brick wall and fell back into
their former disjointed selves, losing to the lowly Wizards and Suns. While
they made a respectable loss out of what looked to be a blowout against the
Warriors, the
Lakers are back to fighting for their playoff lives.
Like
virtually all of the teams in this race, Los Angeles does have more than half
(6) out of their remaining 11 games left at home. However, their schedule is not
easy and they will end up below .500 for the rest of the season and gasping for a
playoff berth. This puts LA right in the middle of my earlier analysis of
the Lakers best and worst case scenarios;
the reality is that Kobe’s will can only carry a team so far and it might not
be enough this year. Call it injuries, lack of cohesiveness, or future Hall of
Famers just not getting it done, but the Lakers will need to do serious
soul-searching regardless of the outcome of this season.
Prediction: 4-7 in their last 11 games,
final record of 40-42
Portland Trailblazers
As
impressive as the Trailblazers have been this season, a playoff seed is not in
sight. Eight of final 12 games are at home but there schedule is the strongest
out of these six teams. In their final stretch, the Blazers play Brooklyn, Utah
(twice), Golden State (twice), Denver, Memphis, Houston, OKC, and the Clippers.
Houston and Dallas are the weakest teams that they face…the odds are against
Portland even winning half of those games. They will certainly vie for a
playoff spot in 2014 with a star-in-the-making at point guard in Damian Lillard but it’s not going to happen in
2013.
Prediction: 5-7 in their last 12 games,
final record of 38-44
Utah Jazz
The
Jazz have started slipping of late but to their relief, seven of their final 11
games left are at home. This may appear
equivalent to most of the other teams in this playoff hunt but the tremendous difference
is these teams’ records on their home floor. The Jazz, known for their animated
home crowd, have the sixth best home record in the West at 25-9, better than
any of the other four aforementioned teams. They also play the
Suns,
Timberwolves (twice), and the Hornets in the final stretch. Utah owns the tiebreaker
with Los Angeles (season series 2-1) and
the tiebreaker with Dallas (2-1).
Superstars
will win championships but teams with chemistry will earn playoff spots. The question is which team can pull it together?
One
of the teams fighting for this spot is streaky and unreliable (Lakers) and
another is fighting back to get into contention (Mavericks), but the Jazz have
been playing horrifically of late (4-9 in March). In a race where every game counts, the combined advantages
of home-court and the tiebreaking records will matter a lot but the Jazz seem to have lost their early season promise.
Prediction: 5-6 in their last 11 games,
final record of 40-42
Prediction of the final standings:
Seed
|
Team
|
Record
|
(6)
|
Golden
State Warriors
|
47-35
|
(7)
|
Houston
Rockets
|
45-37
|
(8)
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
41-41
|
(--)
|
Utah Jazz
|
40-42
|
(--)
|
Los
Angeles Lakers
|
40-42
|
(--)
|
Portland
Trailblazers
|
38-44
|
omg all you do is hate on kobe/the lakers
ReplyDeleteLook forward to your picks and predictions on the NBA playoffs. I have a few upsets win my picks, but only as handful of teams can stop the Heat.
ReplyDeleteJT
http://bookieblitz.com/