You don’t need me to tell you that the 2014 NBA playoffs will be the most exciting in years. The discrepancy between the East and the West is tremendous in terms of conference quality but within each conference there are great stories…and we know that the Finals are going to be competitive.
The main question for me is do I stick with my pre-season playoff picks or pull a 180 on my champion and other rounds results? I did
correctly hit 12 of the 16 playoff teams but seeding ended up…a bit off. That
is attributable to the incredible parity within the league because there are
few clear favorites.
Since there are no clear favorites this year, the NBA paved the way for a
few bold predictions on my part. (Comment with your own below.) Bold prediction #1: Kevin Durant will average
40 in one series. KD has been on a well-documented scoring tear for…well, the
length of the season. He joined two of the most elite scorers in NBA history, Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain, by
leading the league in total scoring for five consecutive years. He’s bound to shred opposing defenses throughout these playoffs, but I
see him either a) taking advantage of the Grizzlies in round 1 and putting up
40 a game or b) in the Finals turning it up a notch and going full MJ.
Bold prediction #2: no series in the
entire playoffs will end in a sweep. The favorite to prove me wrong on this one
is Miami over Charlotte, with an outside shot to Chicago shutting down Washington.
Joakim Noah and the Bulls truly have an “us against the world” mentality after their
front office dealt one of the team’s core players, Luol Deng. They’re even out to prove their own team (management) wrong! But in the end, John Wall and Kemba Walker won’t
let it happen. And Dwyane Wade still needs a warm-up series.
The final bold prediction will have to wait for one of the
below series analyses. It will be worth the wait…and just remember that these
are bold predictions. I’m not out
here claiming Indiana will beat Atlanta and calling it anything more than a given.
Although if Paul George continues his downward spiral, you never know. And at this rate, Roy Hibbert appears
to have a better chance rebounding the saliva Frank Vogel spews after another
missed box-out than hauling down a basketball from the glass.
FIRST ROUND
Eastern conference
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8)
Atlanta Hawks
When your leader scorers are Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague,
you’re going to have problems. That’s not to say that Millsap hasn’t improved
as a scorer, but you can’t win a playoff series with him leading the way. Gus
Fring had a better chance of surviving Hector Salamanca’s murder-suicide blast.
It’s unfortunate because an Indiana vs. Charlotte series could have gotten
veeeery interesting if Kemba and Al played to their offensive capabilities and
the Pacers struggled to score 90. Or even if Al Horford returned (which he won’t). Indiana wins, 4-1
(4) Chicago Bulls vs. (5)
Washington Wizards
John Wall is finally here! Like Kyrie Irving, he was one of
those guys you looked at and said, “man, why isn’t this guy on a playoff squad?”
Well, folks, here he is, battling a ferocious Chicago team that is so good that
Brooklyn pulled off the NBA’s first tank-for-a-lower-seed strategy. Although
Wall’s FG% leaves much to be desired, his reckless abandon at attacking the rim
is something that keeps defenses on their toes. Trevor Ariza might be the most
underrated role player in the league, with a respectable 14-6-3, 1.6 steals per
game, and a tidy 46-41-77 shooting. Washington will work their wizardry
for a couple games but Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah anchor one of the NBA’s
best defenses.
Somewhere
in Minnesota, Kevin Love is mulling over his options and banging his head
against the snow wondering why he had to get stuck in the Western conference
while John Wall gets a free ride to the playoffs. I am now telling Kevin Love EXACTLY
where to take his talents (said in Tim Taylor voice from a famous 1971 movie). Chicago wins, 4-2
(2) Miami Heat vs. (6)
Charlotte Bobcats
It’s nice that Charlotte gets a shot at the playoffs for the
second time in franchise history but we all know how this one will end up. The
one minor story that will be interesting to watch play out is MKG defending
LeBron. We all know Kidd-Gilchrist for some of his facials, but he won’t be
throwing down any on LeBron. His defense, on the other hand, will be
interesting to watch. As will how Miami defends Al Jefferson in the post. But “interesting”
here is relative. Miami wins, 4-1.
(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
I tossed and turned over this pick. I got some heat for it
from readers, and rightfully so. Both teams are talented but in diametrically
opposed ways: one with a grind-it-out half-court offense and another one with high-flyers.
Yes, Toronto started from the bottom and now they have Terrence Ross, Kyle
Lowry, and Demar Derozan. Those guys make up a terrific trio. But I’m pulling
the plug and taking the old guys on this one. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett
have too much pride to not get out of the first round. Brooklyn wins, 4-3
Western conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8)
Dallas Mavericks
We arrive at the battle for Texas. A bunch of old guys
running the show on both ends: Duncan, Ginobili, and Popovich vs. Dirk,
Vinsanity Senior, and Shawn Marion. Monta Ellis will provide a match-up problem for
San Antonio, but (as always) Dr. Popovich, Ph.D will figure it out. It’s almost
pointless analyzing the Spurs because you can try to pull out the “can’t guard Dirk”
or “they’re too old” cards but when Pop rests his team for the playoffs you
know San Antonio will dine on lesser opponents. Dirk and Monta will pull out a
game or two, but Dallas can only dream upsetting the West’s no. 1 seed (cue the
nightmarish flashbacks to 2007 for Mavs fans). San Antonio wins, 4-1
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5)
Portland Trailblazers
Trailblazers. The Trailblazers. (Skip to 3:01.)
I know I’m not with Lil Wayne on this one, but Houston is simply more talented. The team with the best duo will win this series and that edge has to be given to James Harden and Dwight Howard. Oakland native, Damian Lillard, and All-Star forward, LMA, have a great squad but their stretch in early March was enough to make you wonder about the team that had the best record in the West early in the season. Even if Houston has to remove Dwight from late game situations, Harden + free throw line = wins. Houston wins, 4-2
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs.
(7) Memphis Grizzlies
Kevin Durant is not nice and Kevin Durant has not forgotten.
The embarrassment that he underwent in the 2013 NBA playoffs losing to the
Grizzlies and his improvement since then is enough to lead OKC to the
conference semis. The individual games will be competitive, but Memphis will be
lucky to win two games. I would not be surprised if bold prediction #1 comes
true in round 1. Oklahoma City wins,
4-1.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs.
(6) Golden State Warriors
Not a single ESPN writer chose the Warriors to win, which isn’t surprising
considering the Clippers have one of the most loaded rosters in the league. But
when you remember that not a single ESPN personality picked Golden State to win
round 1 in 2013 (and GS won), I have my ammo for your disagreement with this pick. One
topic is obvious, though: this series hinges on the battle of the point guards.
Bold prediction
#3: Steph Curry proves in this series that he is a better point guard than Chris Paul.
In the frontcourt, Blake vs. DLee will be fun to watch, too. I’m going to go ahead and place the over-under for fights in this series at 2.5. I’m taking the over. Golden State wins, 4-3.
In the frontcourt, Blake vs. DLee will be fun to watch, too. I’m going to go ahead and place the over-under for fights in this series at 2.5. I’m taking the over. Golden State wins, 4-3.
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Eastern conference
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (4)
Chicago Bulls
Luck is truly in Indiana’s favor for these playoffs. They
should be thanking Brooklyn for the worlds-most-interesting-tank because if
this were Brooklyn instead of Chicago, I’d take Brooklyn. Alas, it is not and
the reality is that Chicago is a poor-man’s Indiana. Joakim Noah is a contender
for NBA Defensive Player of the Year but he doesn’t have the support around him
to score…even against an offensively-challenged Indiana team. This series is
more likely to have teams score under 80 than above 100. Indiana wins,
4-2.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (6)
Brooklyn Nets
Everybody is salivating over two potential individual
matchups this post-season: LeBron vs. Durant and LeBron vs. Paul Pierce. The former would make
for the most interesting Finals matchup since Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird and
the latter is the matchup of someone who can be perceived as passive vs. one of
the fieriest competitors in the NBA (as a black mamba hisses at me). PP34 and
KG are well past their prime and will probably log limited minutes but multiple
fourth quarter battles of King James vs. The Truth? Yes, please.
Jason Kidd
has pulled off a minor miracle with the new Nets but ultimately playing against
the best player of the game will be enough to win what would be a very exciting
series. Miami wins, 4-3.
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Take a reading break to enjoy the facial expressions on LeBron's and D-Will's faces. Joe's isn't too bad, either. |
Western conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4)
Houston Rockets
Kawhi Leonard defending James Harden would be great to
watch. James Harden not guarding Kawhi Leonard would also be fun to watch.
Defense matters against the Spurs, because in addition to that PhD, Popovich also has a surgical degree
in taking apart bad defenses. The man who popularized Hack-a-Shaq will not be afraid to
take similar measures against Houston. The Rockets will run out of fuel in San Antonio.
San Antonio wins, 4-2
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs.
(6) Golden State Warriors
The league’s best scorer, Kevin Durant, vs. one of the
league’s best perimeter defenders, Andre Iguodala. Last time it didn’t end so
well, with KD matching Steph Curry’s career-high in scoring for a single game
but over the course of a seven-game series, this could get reaaaally interesting. My pre-season pick to make it to the Finals
was the Golden State Warriors, but I can’t in my right mind pick them to beat
OKC without Andrew Bogut. If the Warriors come together in this series and
really click—and shoot—they certainly have an outside shot (no pun intended).
Either way, this would also be another fun series to watch unfold. Oklahoma City wins, 4-2
CONFERENCE FINALS
Eastern conference
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
Indiana has made this the best rivalry in the NBA with their
utter hatred of the Heat. While the Heat-haters had a viable reason to believe
that the Pacers could win the East early in the season, it doesn’t look that
way now. Dwayne Wade has been on a training program this entire year that has
set him up to be as healthy as possible during the playoffs—like a Popovich scheme to the extreme. Wade told the Miami Herald that his knee is doing “very well” and “a lot better than going
into it last year.” And with Chris Bosh emerging as a clutch shooter, the Heat
are well-prepared for yet another deep post-season run. Miami wins, 4-3
Western conference
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma
City Thunder
This series is like Toronto vs. Brooklyn 2.0. The young guys
vs. the old guys…except San Antonio leaning heavily on Kawhi and OKC leaning
(lightly) on Derek Fisher from the bench. Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard would
be yet another heavyweight battle, but this is the year of the Durantula. OKC’s
bench does cause some worry in this series because San Antonio with Patty Mills
& Co. make up the second-best second unit in basketball (Clippers).
Here’s
where a bonus prediction comes in. Durant and Westbrook will need someone to
help step up in crunch-time because the greats always do as the playoffs wear
on. Bold
prediction #4: Derek Fisher hits a game-winner in the Western
conference finals.
And that
will be enough to propel OKC over San Antonio. Oklahoma City wins, 4-3.
NBA FINALS
Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City
Thunder
It would take the second time in three years for LeBron
James and Kevin Durant to meet in the Finals for this to finally be considered
a rivalry. Neither player has a particularly hostile personality but this
Finals matchup would certainly change that. 1) Kevin Durant is desperate to
prove that he is not the second-best player in the league. A championship would bolster
his argument for best in the league, especially against LeBron and the Heat. 2) LeBron knows KD is
coming. He feels the doubters questioning his team and knows if Miami doesn’t
win this year that there is a chance the team falls apart with Wade’s ailing
knees.
KD made me
question my pre-season pick, but I predicted Miami to win the 2012 and 2013
titles so I’m sticking with them for 2014 and the first three-peat since the
00-02 Lakers. LeBron puts up 30-8-7 and confirms his position as the greatest
forward in NBA history with another Finals MVP win. Miami wins the NBA Finals, 4-3.Follow @ElijahAbramson
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