Miami vs. San Antonio, Round 2. Somehow Ol’ Man Duncan and Manu managed to climb atop the Western conference yet again…but this time they didn’t catch me by surprise. After making anyone with a predictive bone in their body stick their foot in their mouth last year, I made sure to give the Spurs some love back in September—vaulting them to the no.1 seed that they would indeed eventually earn. The Miami Heat unsurprisingly made it back for the fourth consecutive time in the LeBron era…and a year where the Eastern conference was particularly pathetic.
Even though Miami is undoubtedly one of the top teams in the league, it’s like comparing Andy from Shawshank Redemption fighting through raw sewage to escape prison to some guy just handing you the key to the prison gates. Would you rather face Dallas, Portland, and Oklahoma City…or Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Indiana? Alas, the parity between the two conferences is something that has been questionable for years and is just a fact of life at this point.
Harvey Araton of the New York Times believes that there is an even greater problem within the NBA in terms of parity. While there is merit to his claim that there is “no place for a miracle on hardwood” he neglects the overarching differences between the NBA and other professional sports (MLB, NFL, and NHL). While I could spend an entire column on this subject (hmmm…) the NBA has smaller rosters and fewer players on court, which allow for superstars to have an overwhelming impact on the game. Moreover, the playoffs have seven-game series, unlike the NFL, which limits upsets for the obvious reason that it’s more difficult for an underdog to pull off four upsets than it is to pull off one. Enough of that discussion for now, let’s get on to the 2014 NBA Finals matchup…
Adi Joseph of the USA Today acutely pointed out that “LeBron James is LeBron James,” in his Finals preview but the Miami Heat bring more than just the King to the table. Rashard Lewis stepped up in the final two games of the Eastern conference finals, drilling 9-of-16 threes and scoring 31 points. Ray Allen went berserk in Game 3 of the conference finals, hitting all four of his threes in the final quarter to help seal a critical win for the Heat.
Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have also been valuable to Miami’s success. At this point in time, Wade might be the most underrated player in the NBA, simply because so many people have counted him out. The coaching staff did limit his minutes during the regular season…but that was all in preparation for this very moment. Wade’s playoff contribution of 19-4-4 on 52 percent from the field, 39 percent from three, and 80 percent from the line will be of paramount importance to expand upon in the Finals. James is well aware of Wade’s abilities and strengths, namely driving to the rim and scoring off of backdoor cuts, and has been instrumental as usual in getting the best in his teammates, like Wade.
Bosh’s offensive game has morphed into something deadly for opponents. During this regular season, Bosh shot almost five times more threes than his career average, and made a respectable 34 percent of them. In the playoffs, he’s jumped to hitting more than 40 percent of his 4.2 3PA per game. This added wrinkle to his game is vital not only to putting points on the board but also to spread out opposing defenses. Bringing David West and Roy Hibbert out to the three point line provides room for Bosh to take them to the basket or gives LeBron and Wade spacing to do that themselves. Gregg Popovich will have his hands full trying to decide how to match up with Bosh for that very reason. Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the perimeter is a bad idea. I would look for Boris Diaw to spend some time on CB. Offensively, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka mildly resemble James and Bosh, so I expect Popovich will figure out a way to match up and limit Bosh and LeBron as much as possible.
Tony Parker’s ankle soreness will probably subside by the time the Finals start, but if it doesn’t, that will certainly impact the way the series plays out. Cory Joseph stepped up in Game 6 of the Western conference finals when called upon to fill in during Parker’s absence and there’s no reason to believe he couldn’t be effective in the Finals. Whether it is Parker or Joseph, the prospective defensive assignment of Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole is not very intimidating.
Kawhi Leonard will undoubtedly spend heavy minutes defending LeBron James. In case you missed last year’s Finals, here’s how LeBron felt when he saw Kawhi was checking back into the game during Game 5:
This is the series—and team—that the Spurs have been preparing for all year. Most NBA fans will probably be rooting for Tim Duncan to win one final championship and ride off into the San Antonio sunset, but I would argue a San Antonio championship provides something more. Nobody on the Spurs has the ability to go off for 35 points (unless Danny Green his 10+ threes in San Antonio…and maybe I shouldn’t rule that out). Their fluid offense and reliance on ball movement should be something that other teams seek to emulate because if the Spurs can make it this far—and possibly win a championship—win no bona-fide superstar, then other teams should seek to mold their personnel in a similar manner.
Danny Green’s consistency is the X-factor going into the Finals because if he cannot find his three-point stroke in Miami…it is going to be a long (or perhaps more aptly, a short) series. LeBron will be the defensive stopper for Miami and spend time on some combination of Parker, Ginobili, and Sugar K Leonard, whoever is hottest at a given moment. Spreading the attack will be key for San Antonio. It’s something they have been able to do all season long, and Miami’s defense won’t be able to silence that entirely. This will definitely be a long series, and I don’t expect many blowouts like there were in the Western conference finals. But just like I said at the beginning of this year that I wouldn’t discount the Spurs because of their age, I’m not picking against LeBron with his current squad.
The San Antonio Spurs has their hands full, facing now both the MVP and the best player in the game in the same post-season. I don't see them beating both. Miami in 7.Follow @ElijahAbramson