Just last season,
doubts swirled around the Bay Area as to the future of the seventh pick in the
2012 NBA Draft, Harrison Barnes. A huge part of the Warriors playoff run in
2013, Barnes put up two 20-point games in both the San Antonio and Denver
series. His production mysteriously bottomed out the following season.
In 2013-14, the
former University of North Carolina star scored less than 10 points per game
and under 40 percent in both the regular season and the playoffs. As if the
roller coaster ride was over, Barnes has returned to 2012 form this season. New
coach Steve Kerr entrusted Barnes with the role as a starter over All-Star
Andre Iguodala. The decision has more than paid dividends for Barnes’ career
and confidence who is sporting career-highs in many traditional shooting stat
categories (points, FG%, FT%, 3PT%). A closer look at Barnes’ transformation in
Steve Kerr’s offense and defense shows that this is no accident.
Re-establishing a favorable shot selection
Mark Jackson has
already been critiqued a lot, most notably by the recent comments from Warriors
co-owner Joe Lacob who said at a VC luncheon that Jackson “couldn’t get along with anybody else in the
organization…you can’t have 200 people in the organization not like you.” I don’t
want to harp on Jackson’s faults more than has already been done, but Barnes was one of
the players most negatively impacted by the lack of offensive scheme and movement.
Take this shot, for
instance:
The Black Falcon
actually rimmed this shot in but it is far from a good shot selection. The mismatch that he had on Mo Williams is nice but you see LaMarcus Aldridge lurking
in the paint and no weak side movement from the Warriors. This isn’t a bad shot
for Carmelo Anthony but an iso post-up for a guy shooting sub-40 percent is not
how the offense with threats all over the place should be run. Thankfully,
Barnes is running with the first team #FullSquad on this one. More often than not, though, those types of shots last year ended up like this one:
From a Curry standstill dribble, Barnes is waiting on the wing
with no movement or initial advantage on his defender. Bogut is already in the high-post/free-throw line area which is
actually not a bad thing (as the Warriors have shown this season). The problem here is that Curry, not Bogut, is the playmaker. Diaw is a crafty defender but Barnes can certainly beat him
off the dribble. Then Splitter sags off Bogut because the
big man has a range of about three feet from the basket. In traffic, Barnes
pulls up and misses.
When you’re a struggling scorer, these are not the types of
shots you want to be taking. As recently as the 2014 Finals, we see how stars like LeBron
would look to get their sidekicks like Wade back on track. Alley-oops and easy
backdoor lay-ups were the way to go. It helped even then, although those Spurs made Miami look like a
D-league team in the '14 Finals. And while the pedigrees for Barnes and the
Warriors aren’t on LeBron-level, the premise is the same.
You’re saying we need Bogut as a facilitator in the high-post
area, ideally no double team, and an easy backdoor lay-up? Let’s fast forward to
2014:
Bogut as a
facilitator? Check. No double team? Check, unless you count two guys behind
you. And an easy lay-up? Checkmate. The chess game that Steve Kerr plays leads
to consistent baskets like this. With P&Rs mixed in with dribble hand-offs,
backdoor cuts mixed with plays like this, Barnes and the Warriors get easy
baskets. So when Charles Barkley proclaims that the Warriors need a post
presence to get easy baskets, these are the plays I would point out to him.
And if it’s not Bogut as a playmaker, there’s Steph Curry,
too:
Same theme as before. Barnes is not (yet) a shot creator like
Steph Curry. What he can do very well, like his teammate Draymond Green, is make open to relatively-open shots. This leads
to greater efficiency (hold that thought for now).
Quantification of Barnes’ shot selection supports this claim.
And if you’ve read any of my other feature columns, you won’t be surprised that it's time we dive into some advanced metrics. Through 21 games, 73% of Barnes' baskets were
off assists, up significantly from 61% last year. Translation: he’s getting a
higher percentage of easier baskets.
Quality of shots is also measured by proximity to the paint.
The mechanics to Barnes’ shot still have me slightly uneasy, but maybe that’s
an off-season project for Alvin Gentry. It’s far from 2013-MKG
but I still see room for a silkier shot. Remove the necessity to square up a
shot by getting shots in the paint. Specifically
in the restricted area, Barnes is shooting 70.4% vs. last year’s 55.3%.
Was he really that
bad last year or has he just gotten lucky? Neither. Again, let’s take a look at
the percent of those (restricted area) field goals that are assisted. Last year 59.6% were assisted, and this year, 73.7%.
One final measure of
ease-of-shot that I find useful is looking at the number of dribbles taken
prior to a shot. This gives a better distribution than simply “catch-and-shoot”
vs. “lay-ups” vs. the other 10,001 ways shots can be classified. And it’s also
valuable because it lumps together generally difficult shots and generally easy
shots even if they’re different types of
shots. A one-dribble post-move and a step-back three are both relatively
easy shots even though the chance of making each shot varies tremendously. So
while a three is a lower percentage shot (statistically) than a shot closer to
the basket, it’s still relatively easy if it’s a catch-and-shoot three. In the words of Andre Iguodala (referring in this case to Klay Thompson), “I can get a
dunk for 2 pts or a layup for 3 pts.” Barnes, like anybody, wants easier shots…and he’s been
getting them.
Greater confidence leading to better
efficiency and more overall success
Confidence is
critical to shot-making, and more easy shots make the difficult ones less
daunting. Barnes exemplifies this standard perfectly. The value of his
increased efficiency is not limited to just zero- or one-dribble shots around
the basket where those pump-fakes that he throws up in the paint work so
well. He is shooting a staggering 45 percent from three this year, up 10 points
from 35 percent last year. 64% true-shooting isn't half bad, either.
Barnes’ rebounding
has also improved. In 31 minutes per game, he’s hauled down 6.4 rebounds per
game. And as with his shot selection, not only has the quantity increased, but
so has the quality. The rebounds that he’s getting are both closer to the
basket and among greater number of contesting rebounders (ie more players going
for the ball).
Rebounds:
|
2013-14 (Percentage)
|
2014-15 (Percentage)
|
With 0 Contesting
Rebounders
|
75.2
|
71.4
|
With 1 Contesting
Rebounder
|
22.2
|
20.3
|
With 2+ Contesting
Rebounders
|
2.3
|
8.3
|
Within 0-6 Feet
|
49.1
|
63.1
|
Great example:
Rebound in traffic? Just a bit. 3920 pump fakes? I stopped
counting after 1000. Great body control and footwork? Kobe would be proud. And
a basket close to the rim? As close as you can get. This shot even got a nice
little fist-pump from Steve Kerr.
Playing with the right lineups
Last year, Barnes was
forced into a role as the primary scorer in a second squad. He’s not that
player yet.
Especially as a young player, he needed/needs the right situation and lineups. Kerr is bridging
the gap and providing just that, giving Barnes time with both the starters and the bench players, and
often with combinations of both. This is great for him because he gets the
opportunity to build confidence as a third or fourth option. Then he can carry that confidence over to the second squad, something that will help build his
individual talent as a primary scorer. He gets minutes with the starters
(started every game so far) but also sees plenty of time with Livingston,
Iguodala, Barbosa, Speights, and the bench.
- - - - - - -
Each player has
benefited individually from Steve Kerr so maybe the three Warriors that I’ve
featured in columns so far should be under a series dubbed (no pun intended)
The Steve Kerr Effect. Barnes’ change is unique, though, and definitely sticks out. Most every other player on the team was on a trajectory to improve (albeit maybe not at the rapid rate it has been). Barnes, however, was a huge question mark for
the team after last year where his highlight reel was still really only that
nasty dunk on Pekovic…a throwdown from 2012-13, the previous season.
That has changed.
Barnes may not be a viable no. 2 scoring option on a team but he is a solid starter on a great team. Not many players can claim to be a starter on a franchise-record
regular season win streak.
(Note: all
statistics accurate through 21 games.)
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