As always, the 2014 NBA Western conference is going to be very strong and competitive. At this point, I would say the only lock is the Oklahoma City Thunder at the No. 1 seed. But even that depends on the successful return of Russell Westbrook from his devastating meniscus injury. Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, and Westbrook are all high-impact players that rely on athleticism and in doing that there is always the heightened risk of injuries.
But we’ll save the rest of the team-by-team analysis for the
meat of Part II, my predictions for the way the Western conference will pan out
in 2014:
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Dallas Mavericks, Los
Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns,
Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz
It would be interesting to see how the standings would pan
out if some of these teams were in the East because the new-look Pelicans and
(healthy?) Timberwolves would make strong playoff pushes. And Kobe Bryant would
find a way to get his undermanned Lakers to limp into the playoffs—somehow,
someway. In the West, though, these teams are destined for an early summer in
2014. With the Mamba laying low in the beginning, I don’t expect anything
out of Mike D’Antoni…and he won’t disappoint. When Kobe comes back, he will
grind out some wins but is that really the best thing for the Lakers franchise
(or even Kobe)?
Regardless, the Lakers will miss the playoffs for only the
second time in the Kobe era and only the third time since 1976. (Somewhere David Stern is crying in the background at
the thought of lost revenue from the NBA’s most popular franchise.)
The Pelicans may have put together something special and
will compete for the final spot with Jrue Holiday, The Brow, Tyreke, and Eric
Gordon. They may not make it this year, but 2015 is not unreasonable to expect
the New Orleans franchise to re-enter the playoff fray.
THIS IS SPARTA YOUR TICKET TO A FIRST ROUND EXIT
8. Portland
Trailblazers
Damian Lillard is a mini-Westbrook without the ego—and he’s
also the franchise player, unlike Westbrook. LaMarcus Aldridge has been the
center of Portland’s organization for many years but Lillard proved in his rookie
campaign that he’s readily capable of 30-point shows. In terms of players 23 and
under, he’s behind Kyrie, Paul George, James Harden, and maybe John Wall. That's it. But even more so than those other players, Lillard has untapped potential. He will be a perennial All-Star in the NBA. A
first appearance on the national stage in the NBA playoffs would be a huge step in that direction. And in
all likelihood it would be Lillard vs. Westbrook.
It’s easy to sleep on the Denver Nuggets after losing Andre
Iguodala, but to do so would be a huge mistake. Their core of Ty Lawson, Danilo
Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, and yes…JaVale McGee is a strong one. Denver was
38-3 at home—the best record in the league—and the Little Man Who Could, Nate
Robinson, will relish that home-court advantage. That strong spark off the
bench may not be enough to get the Nuggets another 57-win season, but they will
definitely be a playoff team.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of those teams in limbo. They have
been the West’s version of the Atlanta Hawks: always good enough to get a seed
in the middle of the conference but never able to make it to that next step,
the NBA Finals. Like the Nuggets, Memphis has a very strong core of not-quite star players. Even with the much desired combo of a strong frontcourt
(Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol) and backcourt
(Mike Conley, Tony Allen), they don’t have that go-to superstar that propels teams to NBA championships. But, as always, the Grizzlies will be
right in that 4 – 6 range for playoff seeding.
ANYTHING GOES: THE BIG FREE-FOR-ALL IN THE WILD, WILD WEST
5. Los Angeles
Clippers
Lob City, led by Chris Paul, will be fun to watch as always.
And with Doc Rivers bringing championship experience to Los Angeles, it will be the
second year in a row where the best team in LA is not the Lakers. While
everybody rightfully raves about Rivers’ ability to rally an NBA locker room, I
still think that there are four teams with player personnel that surpass the Clippers. Blake still has to work on shedding his "soft" label...but he is still a star in this game. In each of Griffin's three seasons in the NBA, he’s
averaged over 20 points per 36 minutes on over 50 percent from the field.
J.J. Redick, Antawn Jamison, and Darren Collison were quiet
but solid pickups. Redick will help the Clippers space out the floor and
Collison will be a great backup to CP3. With their current squad, anything less
than a top-5 seed would be a huge disappointment—but realistically if LA
clicks, a two-seed is not out of the realm of possibility.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Warriors, like the Indiana Pacers, model how you want to build a deep franchise but both will ultimately fall one spot short of the No. 1 seed to teams with a more loaded front-end. The Heat and the Thunder combine to have the two best players in the game and four of the top ten. Health is the hidden card behind any NBA franchise’s success, but with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the OKC Thunder are clear favorites to win the West. (Edit on 10/14...well not so much now that Westbrook is re-injured. They'll still be in the hunt for a top-5 seed but that "clear favorite" idea I said? Not true anymore.)
3. Houston Rockets
Dwight Howard will add a dominating defensive presence on the inside for Houston. Offensively, however, it
remains to be seen how Kevin McHale will integrate Howard into their
run-and-gun offensive scheme that relies on quick possessions and a high
percentage of threes. And unless Hakeem Olajuwon truly overhauled
Howard’s offensive game, the new center still has very limited ability in the post. And his goal may be to shoot 75 – 80 percent from the line, but Howard has to hit
50 percent first.
Chandler Parsons is one of the more underrated players (put up 16-5-4 in 2013) and will emerge as valuable starter for Houston. McHale will have to work out an effective rotation that involves D12 and Asik and we still haven’t mentioned the best player on the team, James Harden. I’m with Kevin Durant on this one: Harden was snubbed a top-10 spot by Sports Illustrated’s 2013-14 ranking. With a Harden-Howard duo leading the way in Houston, the West should be on alert.
Chandler Parsons is one of the more underrated players (put up 16-5-4 in 2013) and will emerge as valuable starter for Houston. McHale will have to work out an effective rotation that involves D12 and Asik and we still haven’t mentioned the best player on the team, James Harden. I’m with Kevin Durant on this one: Harden was snubbed a top-10 spot by Sports Illustrated’s 2013-14 ranking. With a Harden-Howard duo leading the way in Houston, the West should be on alert.
2. Golden State
Warriors
You could make a strong argument that each of the Warriors starters (Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Lee, and Bogut) are top-five players for their respective positions and there’s no doubt that all are top-10 for their position. The Black Falcon (Harrison Barnes) also has to be a favorite to win the Sixth Man of the Year award and Draymond Green and Jermaine O’Neal will lead a highly capable group of role players. Golden State is the most well-rounded team in the NBA and Mark Jackson will be sure to get the most out of each of them. It’s been a long haul for Warriors fans, but this team is finally ready to compete with the best in the West.
1. San Antonio Spurs
I’ve been one to say in years past that the Spurs were “too old” and each time I’ve been proven wrong. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan have convinced me that there is nothing “too old” when you are literally one shot away from winning the NBA Finals. In that SI ranking, I was originally surprised to see Parker at No. 4 but that’s exactly where he should be. Until Derrick Rose proves that he can return successfully from injury and Steph Curry proves he can stay healthy, TP is the second-best point guard in the NBA today. A dynamic playmaker, Parker is a youthful 31 years old and can create for himself if Pop allocates less minutes to Duncan and Ginobili in 2014.