The 2014-15 NBA season is
finally (almost) upon us. And what NBA blogger or sportswriter starts the season without some bold predictions? This isn't going to be like
Zach Lowe's predictions column for Grantland where Cleveland leading the league in points per possession counted and Indiana missing the playoffs counted as bold. Enough with the introduction, let's get straight into the meat of some predictions that will make you raise your eyebrows more than once BUT will be supported with more than a desire to jump on or off a team/player bandwagon...
San Antonio will not be a
top-three seed
I pulled a Gregg Popovich and may have outsmarted not just
him, but also you, with this pick. After all, when you’re dealing with Gregg
Popovich, you have to think at least ten steps ahead. You thought that I’m
picking
against the Spurs with this
prediction…but I’m not. Popovich is the master of the regular season and the
post-season. He’s like the Mamba of coaches (who took home almost every coaching award in the annual
NBA GM survey). He waits and waits and
pounces just when the time is right. As his team ages, he doles out fewer and
fewer regular season minutes to his starters. I foresee that trend continuing
to the point where he doesn’t mind losing out to the Thunder, Clippers, and
Warriors in seeding.
Dallas, the 8 seed, gave them the hardest battle in the 2014
playoffs, so seeding only matters so much. Pop knows a healthy squad is more
valuable than home-court through the Western conference playoffs if the two are
mutually exclusive.
Terrence Ross will average
18-6-4
For a guy to make the jump from 11-3-1 to get to 18-6-4, we’re
talking about a most improved player-worth leap. But for T Dot who can leap out
of the building on any given dunk, I think it’s possible considering he has a
maniacal fan base and great team around him. His point guard, Kyle Lowry, just
got $48 million guaranteed so he’s ready to throw out some dimes. 2014 Terrence Ross can put up 2013 Klay Thompson-type numbers. Ross is quietly a 40 percent three-point
shooter who goes crazy on left corner threes (47 percent), a vital shot as determined by NBA efficiency gurus.
I’m going to throw in a bonus prediction: Toronto will be a
No. 2 seed over Chicago and Washington. The dynamic between Paul Pierce and the
Wiz young backcourt will be interesting. I’m not sold on Derrick Rose until
I see him thrashing through the Leastern conference defenses. Bagels in FIBA competition is not reason for optimism with the former NBA MVP.
TNT will suspend Charles
Barkley once
It’s too easy to make this just a bold playoff predictions
article. Plus, the side stories are often nearly as entertaining as the games
themselves. In fact, some off-season talk on the BS Report landed in this realm
and suggested that the NBA free agency period receives more attention than the
NBA games. The celebrity appeal crosses into the sports realm more frequently
than just when a Kardashian hops from dating one NBA player to another (yes, Lamar
Odom and Kris Humphries, I’m looking at you).
Charles Barkley on Inside
the NBA was and is must-see TV. More than once, I wouldn’t re-watch a TNT game if I had missed it live… but I would scroll back to the halftime shows.
Those short segments with Chuck, Kenny, Shaq, and Ernie were always exciting
because you never knew when someone would drop what Jalen Rose calls a
“don’t-get-fired” moment. If you didn’t see Barkley's antics describing San Antonio
women, go to YouTube right now and watch them.
He was one step away from getting suspended. If ESPN can put
Bill Simmons on vacation for calling the NFL commissioner a liar with some cuss
words sprinkled in, then TNT could suspend Chuck for some inevitably outrageous
comment this year.
LeBron James will continue
his year-over-year increase in FG% that began in 06-07
He’s climbed from a "paltry" 47.6% to an unfathomable 56.7%.
LeBron James doesn’t have much more room to improve but he’ll figure out a way to do it.
Kevin Love will be spotting up and working P&Rs, Kyrie will finally learn
how to play within a team concept, and Dion Waiters chip on his shoulder is still Goliath-sized.
LeBron has been raving about new head coach, David Blatt. I almost
wanted to throw out a prediction that would only turn out to be
outrageous…LeBron will average a triple-double. Two main reasons I decided
against it: 1) LeBron slimmed down. I’m expecting him to play less at the power
forward spot and more at the 3 (hence lower rebounding numbers). 2) Blatt and LeBron may come to the agreement
that the best player in the game needs to rest more. This won't stop the best player in the game from an efficiency level that you can’t reach in NBA 2K15.
The Lakers will have the
fewest wins in their 54-year Los Angeles history
26 wins or less. And if I’m setting the over-under at games
Steve Nash plays at that same number, I’m taking the under there, as well.
Unless Linsanity 2.0 erupts in Los Angeles, the combination of Lin, Kobe, and
the self-anointed Swaggy P could be a scoring backcourt gone oh-so-very-wrong.
Iso-ball + jacking up contested shots = losses.
As if a team of defensive sieves wasn’t enough, Byron Scott
decided to take down any chance at improved offensive efficiency. The new
Lakers coach wants his team to take
10-15 threes a game. A Twitter account has been born out of Scott’s desire to
essentially eliminate the most efficient shot in the game (the corner three).
@HaveTheLakers MadeACorner3? is a
real thing. At least Kobe will be able to shoot 9-28 and put up big scoring
numbers…right?
Chris Bosh will come
surprisingly close to 50-40-90
And the award for 2014-15 Biggest Chip on His Shoulder goes
to…. Chris Bosh! The ramifications of the LeBron move ripple throughout the
NBA, but nowhere moreso than King James’ former team. One thing that LeBron did
do for Bosh was help create the necessity for a three-point shot, something
that became a weapon for the stretch-5. With LeBron gone, Bosh can go back to
working in the paint in addition to spreading the floor with his three-point
shot. What does this mean? A lot of mismatches and increased efficiency. His career peaks in FG% and FT% are 54 and 84, respectively. Last year, he was 34 percent
from 3. Coming within a total of 5-7 percentage points of the 50-40-90 club
would be a career year, but for a rejuvenated former All-Star who’s still only
30, it’s not too outrageous.
(For good measure, the second place finisher in the Biggest
Chip on His Shoulder was another casualty of the LeBron trade: 2014 no. 1
overall pick, Andrew Wiggins.)
Carmelo Anthony will hit the
30 points per game mark for the first time in his career
The East has significantly improved from last year to this
year. However, the Knicks have almost been part of that upward trend. The
pick-up of Jose Calderon at point guard will prove to be a significant upgrade
to the ever-ballooning Raymond Felton…and I don’t mean ballooning in skill.
Newly-minted head coach, Derek Fisher, and the Zen Master, Phil Jackson, should
be able to maximize the ability of their roster, unlike Mike Woodson.
The relationship between Iman Shumpert, a player that I
believe has a solid upside despite a career FG% south of 40, and former coach
Mike Woodson was tumultuous (as
Phil Jackson recently pointed out). Put all of this together, and Carmelo
Anthony is right in position for a career year. I’m not expecting his assist
numbers to skyrocket, but the 30ppg mark is well within reach for one of the
NBA’s top-2 scorers.
The 76ers will not have the
worst record in the NBA
This is probably the least likely prediction out of all of them. Most pundits consider the 76ers falling to the bottom inevitable. I'm going to go the other way because unlike the Sixers, the Jazz are in the West. Dante Exum still has to prove he can compete with the best basketball players in the world. I think
eventually he’ll be a serviceable starter/borderline All-Star, but I’m taking a
flier on this year’s Nerlens Noel before I take one on Exum. The Celtics are cellar contenders when they eventually trade a malcontent Rajon Rondo. It’s a tough call,
but I’ll take the field in the competition for the NBA’s 2014-15 Least Likely
to Agree to Lottery Reform.
Klay Thompson will be a 2015
All Star and get his max contract
…and he’ll be considered underpaid a few years down the line
when the new TV contract leads to the eventual gradual or rapid salary cap
spike. The younger Splash Bro has
already said that he prefers the contract extension now instead of waiting for a
long-term deal once the new cap hits. Dan Feldman of NBC Sports has pegged this
extension to be worth
$89 million and last through the 2020 NBA season.
For comparison, if he sought a Parsons like deal, he could
make nearly $100 million in that same time-span. If Klay does accept an
extension by October 31, it’ll put him in the pay grade of the top-five shooting
guards in the league, something he is well-worth. I’m betting on Klay to have a
big year under new coach, Steve Kerr. Former Warriors coach, Mark Jackson, was
a great friend to (most) players in his locker room but left much to be desired
in terms of on-court strategy. The lack of ball movement is one of Jackson’s
main failures as an HC, and Kerr is already turning that around.
Better (and more) motion will lead to open shots, and open
shots for one of the game’s best shooters will be lethal. Klay will be in the
20-5-4 range when the All-Star break rolls around and find himself playing
alongside Steph Curry in the game. Hype matters when it comes to All-Star
voting, so Klay’s FIBA success and the ever-increasing spotlight on the
Warriors will push him into All-Star glory.
Now, I’m going on record saying that the Warriors can
support two All-Stars with two defensive stoppers, potentially the
best defense in the league, and a bright coach. So I’m ready to make my boldest
prediction and become the first person to predict that…
The Golden State Warriors will win the 2015 NBA Finals
The squad that the Warriors will put on the floor is as good
as any teams. Superstar? Check. Shooting? The best. Perimeter and interior
defense? Third-best defense in the league last year. Bright, young coach
surrounded by a great staff? Finally. What about the bench? With Brandon Rush, Harrison Barnes, Festus Ezeli, Mo Speights, and Draymond Green coming off the bench, this squad has all the pieces. And the thing that will always go
underrated…chemistry? SB Nation called them the
Weird Warriors for a reason. They are a little weak in the Veteran Leadership Dept., though.
Only David Lee and Leandro Barbosa are the sole players older than 30…and they’re both only 31 years
old.
They showed in 2013 that they can beat the Spurs. That Game
1 collapse in Round 1 emotionally throttled the team but they still made the
Spurs fight to win a series I still feel the Warriors should have won (and
would have under a better coach). In 2014, they took a Sternly-motivated
Clippers team to seven games with their second-best player sidelined. Twice in
a row, it’s been so close you could taste it. Both times against two top teams,
you felt they had it within reach. All they’ve needed is a
#FullSquad and
good coach.
I love everything that I’ve seen so far from Steve Kerr. The
way he handles the team, the media, his staff, and himself is how you want your coach to do it. I’ve
picked a favorite to win each of the past three NBA Finals and it’s time to change
that up. This team has the potential for a top-3 offense and top-3 defense. I’m
all in on the Warriors.